Geopolitical Fragmentation Slows Trade
- Geopolitics prioritizes over efficiency, causing trade growth to lag GDP by 0.5-1%
- Tariffs and sanctions rise 20-30% above 2025 levels through 2026-2028
- Supply chains regionalize within Asia/EU/US blocs rather than full reshoring
- Policy uncertainty doubles trade volatility vs. pre-2025 norms
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