Tailwind: Fiscal-Dominated Reflation

Fiscal deficits remain 5-7% of GDP, constraining Fed independence more than consensus expects
Inflation persists at 3.5-4.5% from structural shortages, 1-2pp above Fed targets
Growth hits 2.5-3.5% annually from stimulus/AI, exceeding subdued cycle forecasts
Debt funding via financial repression creates negative real rates long-term

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