Headwind: Stagflation Amid De-Globalization

Geopolitical fragmentation duplicates supply chains 2x faster than expected, adding persistent 1-2% to costs
Tariff volatility and energy shocks sustain inflation at 3-4% despite weak demand
Central banks paralyzed, holding rates 100-200bps higher than consensus forecasts
Bloc formation increases regional GDP dispersion by 50% over baseline

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