Headwind: AI Governance Splits Blocs by 2050

Regulatory divergence persists without harmonization, creating permanent bloc-based silos
Compliance costs consolidate market power to top multinationals, squeezing SMEs out
Cross-bloc tech access restricted 40% below consensus, halving AI productivity spillovers
Geopolitical tensions amplify arbitrage, delaying but deepening trust erosion by 2040

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