Headwind: Demographic Stagflation Trap

Working-age population contracts 300k+ annually through 2030 vs. consensus immigration-stabilized growth
Labor force participation falls below 62% with prime-age declines amplifying tightness
Inflation persists at 3-3.5% despite sub-1.5% GDP growth due to wage frictions
Immigration halved from baseline, accounting for 100% of prior labor supply gains

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