Headwind: Reflation Pressures Slow Energy Transition

Commodity supply frictions 2x worse than consensus, driving 20-30% cost inflation
Electricity demand growth outpaces clean deployment by 1.5x due to AI/EV surge
Central banks maintain 4-5% rates through 2030 amid sticky 3-4% inflation
Resource security policies boost fiscal spending, raising debt ratios 5-7 points

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