Tailwind: Reflation with Persistent Restrictive Policy
- Inflation persists at 3.5-4.5% despite restrictive policy due to wage-commodity feedback loops
- Market-based finance grows 2x faster than banks, stabilizing volatility via better liquidity regimes
- Regulatory reforms enhance collateral frameworks, limiting shock propagation without tightening credit
- Fiscal reflation investments yield delayed productivity gains by year 4
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