Crosscurrent: Reflation Meets Rigid Plumbing

Growth hits 3.5-4% annually despite restrictive policy due to fiscal offsets
Inflation persists at 3.5-4.5% from wage-price spirals, delaying rate cuts
Regulations push 20% of credit to shadow banking, amplifying volatility transmission
Collateral shortages widen risk premia 100bps vs. consensus stability

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